Wednesday, June 06, 2012

About last night

A few things.

First, tonight's results should be kept in perspective. I have lots of liberal friends. I know how I would have felt if it went the other way. I don't share or feel their pain, but I can understand it.

Public officials like the Governor  need to find a way to go forward. Governor Walker's speech was appropriately gracious and I sincerely hope that Democratic and Republican legislators can get together for beer and brats. It won't be easy.

Second, last night was very bad for the Democrats. The gubernatorial race was not close. Turnout was not at the level of the 2008 Presidential election but it significantly exceeded the 2006 and 2010 gubernatorial elections. The electorate was engaged and Walker, after having been vilified for 15 months, did a little better than he did a year and a half ago.

For my entire life (and I ain't young), Democrats have believed that, if they could just increase turnout, their candidates will win. It almost never works that way. They ran a great ground game yesterday. The Republicans ran a better one. More voters meant a bigger margin for Governor Walker.

Third, exit poll results that showed Obama with a comfortable lead are questionable. The same polls showed Walker and Barrett in a close race when, in fact, they were not. In any event, it's a long way to November and the idea that someone who voted for Walker might not abandon Obama for Romney is nothing I would wager on.

As  I write this, it  appears that the Democrats may have won one of the Senate recalls. That's not much of an accomplishment. They tried to pick the three most vulnerable Senators after the largely failed recalls of last summer.  This shouldn't have been hard. In 2010, the GOP picked up a number of swing districts in a heavily Republican year.

The odd thing here is that the district won by John Lehman no longer exists. The now Democratic Senate was unlikely to do much between now and the fall elections. The likelihood that they will hold on in November is slim. Winning that seat is a bit of a consolation, but not much.

Cross posted at Shark and Shepherd home page.


Anonymous said...

How much do you want to bet that Democrats hold the 21st Senate District past November? I will bet the farm.

The even-numbered seats are up for election this fall, so the next election in the 21st district won't be held until 2014.

Anonymous said...

How much do you want to bet that the Democrats DON'T hold the seat past November is the correct question!

Anonymous said...

Tom Barrett's long-held wish of not having to be Milwaukee's mayor will now likely come true, as either Hines or Abele will take him on and beat him.

Anonymous said...

I think the first commenter misunderstood - I believe what the Professor was referring to the Democrats holding on to was control of the Senate, not the 21st district seat.

George Mitchell said...

Senate is likely to flip after nov elections. Dems will get to do "pretend" majority until they lose it in January 2013. Lehman likely to lose in new district in 2014.