Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Maybe, in order to win, Obama needs to get more votes

I haven't a clue what will happen in the Pennsylvania primary. It looks like Hillary will win, but perhaps not by the decisve margin that she is said to need. If so, Obama will declare victory and urge Hillary to withdraw.

I look at it a little differently. Obama has had six weeks to go head to head with her. He has overwhelmed her with cash. She has continued to be a singularly unattractive candidate persisting in embarassing lies about her visit to Bosnia and childhood affinity for shooting. If Obama can't beat her under these circumstances, he is a candidate with significant weaknesses. These weaknesses, moreover, seem to stem from an association with the worst of American liberalism that Hillary Clinton, of all people, is poorly positioned to exploit. (Although at least one commentator thinks that Obama will learn. I'm skeptical. He doesn't seem to think that he ought to.)

Maybe it doesn't matter. Maybe the prospect of a Republican win is just doomed by Bush's unpopularity or the fact that the election comes at the wrong place in the business cycle for the GOP. (I am not persuaded that the war hurts McCain.) We can be sure that, no matter what the economic reality, that the media will treat any economic slowdown as if we are on the brink of Depression. And there are, after all, polls that show Obama beating McCain in PA.

But don't Democrats have to be worried about a guy who can't put away such an empty suit? And no matter what the polls say about a race that hasn't started, it's hard not to conclude that Obama has left folks in places like Pennsylvania and Ohio unimpressed. You can make a fairly strong argument that, for a Democrat to win, Pennsylvania shouldn't even be in play. How do you get to 270 if, after McCain actually campaigns there, it's in the GOP column?

That being said, McCain has a tough road ahead. Our youth obsessed culture is not going to look kindly on a 72 year old candidate. Will McCain turn out to be Bob Dole? We are almost certainly going into some kind of slow down (one is rather overdue) and the credit crisis makes for good footage.

But I don't know that the blue tsunami that some of my liberal friends are already celebrating is going to happen.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

People are getting vary wary of both Obama and Clinton. My spouse said last night that people at work think they should both quit and let someone else try. Maybe they should arm wrestle, but Obama supporters would probably say that Clinton cheated.

McCain has credibility, he loves and has served his country and has support from both sides. A younger generation elected Reagan and the older generation is still a large voting block.

The only problem with the economy is oil prices. No matter who is President, this problem would exist. It will be very dangerous for anyone to deal with the problem, but of the three I think McCain is more suitable for the task.

J. Gravelle said...

Or, we could encourage the DNC to abandon the politics of (internal, for now) divisiveness and ask them to settle this with honor and dignity...

-jjg
DailyScoff.com

3rd Way said...

If Obama can't beat her under these circumstances, he is a candidate with significant weaknesses.

Huh? Obama is fighting a war on two very hostile fronts (three if you include the right wing media). The fact that he is able to deflect these attacks while increasing his support shows he is a candidate of significant strength.

McCain has credibility

Huh? He has flip flopped on tax cuts, pandering to "agents of intolerance", opposition to torture, and campaign-finance reform. My dog is more principled than John McCain.

The only problem with the economy is oil prices.

The weak dollar is a bigger problem. McCain's proposed tax cuts and spending increases are the same policies Bush has employed. Our debt is the biggest economic problem we face. Bush made it balloon, McCain is going to continue to blow hot air into that balloon.

McCain lost this election the day he started to layout his economic policy. The deal will be sealed the day he has to step on stage and debate a far more charismatic man young enough to be his grandson. It is all over after he is exposed as the McSame malleable politician willing to pander to the GOP leadership that is in the White House right now.

Republicrat said...

3rd way -- nice spin, but I don't think the American public is as stupid as you and Obama make them out to be.

First, you and the DNC are embarrassing yourselves with this McCain = Bush tripe. Unless the Bush Lied, People Died crowd is better able to convince the public that the Iraq war is a hopeless failure, I think you're going to have a hard time looking good for trotting this line of argument out.

Second: oh, poor Obama, the presidential candidate is finally facing some scrutiny from Clinton and the media. He's a presidential candidate, for Allah's sake. Isn't he supposed to be able to withstand intense scrutiny and pressure while performing admirably if he's to be president?

On that front, Obama's charisma has been waning since he's faced scrutiny. Let's hope, for your sake, that he can recover some of his former self.

Finally, you're right that he's been able to "deflect" attacks. He must have learned from the Hillary Clinton Vast Right Wing Conspiracy School of Politics, because he's been doing exactly what you say -- deflecting, rather than addressing, criticisms. Rather than meet criticisms and reassure those who may not be sure about him, he's been calling every attack a "distraction." Sorry that I can't sit around, sing Kumbaya, er . . . Change and Hope, and vote for Obama. Something tells me many undecided voters will need some substance before the general election.

Obama's Distractions: http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2008/03/obama_its_all_a_distraction.asp

Anonymous said...

3rd way said...

"The weak dollar is a bigger problem."

I'm not sure that you understand what you're saying. There is a very big upside to a weak dollar, but there is no upside to the rapidly rising oil prices.

The oil problem is by far the biggest crisis this counrty must face. We're going to sink or swim in how it's handled. I would never consider putting something of this magnitude into the hands of a glib tongued little rascal like Obama.

3rd Way said...

I'm not sure that you understand what you're saying.

I am 100% certain you don't know what you are saying. High oil prices and a weak dollar go together like clouds and rain.

The oil problem is by far the biggest crisis this counrty must face. We're going to sink or swim in how it's handled.

And what exactly do you think your glib tounged old rascal is going to do about our oil problem? Bomb, bomb, bombing Iran certainly isn't going to bring the price down.

you and the DNC are embarrassing yourselves with this McCain = Bush tripe

Really... Please explain to me the substantive differnce between McCain's and Bush's economic policies. This election is going to boil down to one issue, it's the economy stupid.

John Foust said...

I thought the funny bit in this post was the sentence with "business cycle" and GOP as if they had nothing to do with each other, as if "business cycle" was somehow not affected by human action, like rain.

Anonymous said...

3rd way -

you really think that a weak dollar caused the higher oil prices?

3rd Way said...

you really think that a weak dollar caused the higher oil prices?

I do not think it caused higher oil prices, but I know that it is a contributing factor. Some people that know a lot more about economics than either of us think it is the most significant factor in the recent run up of oil.

Look it up.

The weakness of the dollar is not going to turn around if we continue the Bush deficit spending policies like McCain is proposing.

Rick Esenberg said...

I thought the funny bit in this post was the sentence with "business cycle" and GOP as if they had nothing to do with each other, as if "business cycle" was somehow not affected by human action, like rain.

Make your case. But it can't include tax cuts because those were followed by a rather prolonged expansion.

Jay Bullock said...

I think another way to look at it is that Hillary Clinton has had 40-some odd contests to beat Obama, but hasn't been able to. She can't win on popular vote, states won, pledged delegates, or--at the present rate they're breaking--superdelegates.

If Hillary Clinton cannot win over Democrats, how can she win in November?

I don't know what kind of rhetorical voodoo you're trying, but this post is ridiculous.

Jay Bullock said...

(I forgot to mention that Cliton also has long ago lost the money primary. How can she expect to keep up with McCain's campaign finance shenanigans if she can't raise money?)

Anonymous said...

My low opinion of Obama stems mostly from the direction his 'deflections' are aimed at. How many of his aides and campaign staff have been blamed now? At least a half dozen high profilers? Most of the work of the Executive branch is done by appointees. It is not just his friends and mentors that have questionable character or do shoddy work, according to Obama it includes many of the people who work for him. If he has such questionable abilities to judge the quality of others I don't want him as a President.
I would rather have an idiot for President who was a good judge of character and talent than a visionary who can't get others to do what he envisions. You get experts to advise you then you follow the advice, Obama doesn't seem the type.

Anonymous said...

anon 11:16

Well we have had "the Idiot" part for the last 7 Years.

parton said...

ガレージ 中京競馬場 ペニス増大 まつげエクステ講習 夫 浮気 妻浮気 ストーカー 調査 体験入店銀座 結婚式二次会 アダルトグッズ フェイシャル 麻布十番 英語 勉強 税理士 東京 電報 結婚式 まつげエクステ カップリングパーティー 素行調査 興信所 興信所 高収入 アルバイト 高収入 アルバイト 競馬予想 電話占い カップリングパーティー 結婚式 ウェルカムボード 株式情報