South Dakota and Montana can't get him there but Barack Obama is just about over the line in his pursuit of the Democratic nomination. But is Hillary Clinton unveiling a new end game? Most of the talk about how close Obama is and how Hillary can't win is premised on the understandable assumption that superdelegates who have announced the support for him are somehow irrevocably "his."
It's a good working assumption but, of course, it's not true. "Obama" superdelegates are perfectly free to change their minds. The public debate over what they ought to do (reflect Obama's lead among the committed delegates or follow a mythical national "popular vote" which can itself be measured in multiple ways) doesn't much reflect what they should and will do.
The whole point of having uncommitted superdelegates is to allow supposedly seasoned professionals to make a judgment about what is in the best interests of the party independent of what the voters have done in the state primaries. At this point (and contrary to my own earlier assumption), it appears that Hillary is a somewhat stronger general election candidate than Obama. It's not clear that her advantage is clear enough to warrant a reversal of the party's movement toward Obama as its voters are increasingly moving toward Clinton.
But even if it was, the Democrats are in a box. Dumping Obama would threaten to break the modern connection between African-American voters and Democrats. These voters have come to believe (with some justification) that Obama has earned the nomination and that taking it from him would be an act of disrespect toward an important constituency. Without African-Americans, the Democrats can't win. Ever. Even if, given the likely identification of Obama with far left politics, Clinton is the stronger candidate, there is no choice to be made here.
That's why its over and has been since Super Tuesday.
11 comments:
Roeser answers your implicit question.
See my blog: http://dad29.blogspot.com/2008/06/its-not-obama-presidency-dems-seek.html
The Dems are betting (not all that bad a bet) that McCain is a very poor candidate, and could lose without a strong Dem candidate.
True.
If AlQuaeda and its allies are in ANY way a disciplined force, they will cooperate by holding off any overt and visible ops, whether here or elsewhere--making McCain's single strength, a 'tough guy' foreign policy, a zero-add.
That leaves 'voting the wallet,' which is not a sure thing for the Pubbies.
The whole Obama thing is the "far left" taking control of the democratic party and the black vote is only one piece of the bigger picture.
The Republicans could benefit even with a candidate that is not as conservative as preferred.
Anon 6:28: Good luck!
anon 8:03 am -
You think conservative democrats are going to vote for Obama? I think they correctly see him being to far left, even of Clinton.
Anon 11:44--Conservative Democrat? Isn't that an oxymoron? Whatever. . .if you conservative republicans and neocons simply want four more years of the same crap that has significantly damaged this country, vote for McSame. If you want your sons and daughters to be drafted into military service to continue fighting an inane war in Iraq that McSame has said will last 100 years (or as Dubya indicated another 40 years), vote for McSame. If you want to continue to see this country divided on political, economic, and religious issues, vote for McSame. If you want a president who doesn't even understand all the factions in Iraq and other areas of the Mideast, vote for McSame. If you want the rest of the world to continue despising the United State, vote for McSame.
Personally, I have great hope in Obama for a variety of reasons which you probably can't or won't even attempt to understand.
So be it.
anon 1:24 -
Why is it that anyone that disagrees with the far left gets called names, gets blamed with all the ills in the world with no reasonable basis for their assualts?
Obama may be your Messiah but he's not mine. As I said earlier, he represents the far left (that you must be part of) that is attempting to take full power of the democratic party. There are, regardless of your narrow view, many conservative democrats that do not see this as a good thing. I've personnally been told by some that they will not vote for Obama because he does not represent their views.
The whole Obama thing is being pulled off masterfully, but many people are seeing through it for what it is. Your arguments from ignorance do not impress me a bit.
Oh, Anon 3:22--when did I call Obama "my messiah"? You did make me chuckle when you said, "he represents the far left (that you must be part of) that is attempting to take full power of the democratic party". Where that came from is beyond me. Perhaps you are confused in your silly little head with Dubya and Rove--how they thought the Republicans would rule Congress on a permanent basis.
No matter what--you believe what you want to (and vote who you think will turn this country around) and I will vote for the person I want.
With all the machinations from Dubya and Company, this is still a free country and people can still have and express their views.
anon 1:24 and 4:15 said -
"want four more years of the same crap"
"to continue fighting an inane war in Iraq"
"to continue to see this country divided on political, economic, and religious issues"
"the world to continue despising the United State"
After you exposed your views on the hopeless condition of the U.S. you said...
"Personally, I have great hope in Obama for a variety of reasons which you probably can't or won't even attempt to understand."
I know that it's way over my head and something that takes a deep spiritual commitment to his majesty Obama, but then you said...
"when did I call Obama "my messiah"?"
I guess you just don't know what you're saying.
anon 7:00
Amen. Many are so taken by Obama that they can't even see how he has become their savior. And the most frightening part is that he sees himself in the same light.
Heaven help us.
Oh please, get over yourselves. Can you honestly say the last 7 plus years have been wonderful? If so, as I said earlier, vote for McSame.
anon 9:42
Get over ourselves? What does that have to do with anything? Is it because we are saying things that you don't like to hear?
No, things have not been wonderful the past seven years. Unfortunately, we live in a very troubled world and there is no one person that can reverse that. If you believe that any politician (including Obama) can make them so you are delusional.
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