It's now official. Wisconsin will elect a Governor from Milwaukee for the first time since 1939. Nevertheless, I think anti-Milwaukee feelings will play a role in the election. If outstaters see Milwaukee as an ungovernable mess seeking favors from Madison, they may well prefer a candidate who they see as, while from Milwaukee, not "of Milwaukee." If anti-Milwaukee animus is rooted in a belief(whether right or wrong) that the city want to be bailed out by the rest of the state, then the small government candidate is likely to benefit.
At the same time, Scott Walker is in a position to make great inroads against the normal Democratic margin coming out of Milwaukee. The fact of the matter is that most people in Milwaukee County actually like the way that he has dealt with the financial mess he inherited. There is a reason that he continues to be re-elected.
Jim Doyle has not done Tom Barrett any favors. His financial juggling act may have gotten him a few points in 2006. But it's not going to help the Democratic candidate in 2010.
Add to that the Zeitgeist and a Democratic nominee who seems disengaged from the campaign, there is a strong opportunity for a change in the state house. But, for Republicans, I want to quote an old trial lawyer friend of mine. When things went well, he'd always remind us.
Don't get smug.