It's now official. Wisconsin will elect a Governor from Milwaukee for the first time since 1939. Nevertheless, I think anti-Milwaukee feelings will play a role in the election. If outstaters see Milwaukee as an ungovernable mess seeking favors from Madison, they may well prefer a candidate who they see as, while from Milwaukee, not "of Milwaukee." If anti-Milwaukee animus is rooted in a belief(whether right or wrong) that the city want to be bailed out by the rest of the state, then the small government candidate is likely to benefit.
At the same time, Scott Walker is in a position to make great inroads against the normal Democratic margin coming out of Milwaukee. The fact of the matter is that most people in Milwaukee County actually like the way that he has dealt with the financial mess he inherited. There is a reason that he continues to be re-elected.
Jim Doyle has not done Tom Barrett any favors. His financial juggling act may have gotten him a few points in 2006. But it's not going to help the Democratic candidate in 2010.
Add to that the Zeitgeist and a Democratic nominee who seems disengaged from the campaign, there is a strong opportunity for a change in the state house. But, for Republicans, I want to quote an old trial lawyer friend of mine. When things went well, he'd always remind us.
Don't get smug.
14 comments:
Mr. Rick, who ever wins, Walker or Barrett, they will have a difficult time with the financial mess Doyle and the current crop of legislators have left. I wouldn't envy either one, as they'll likely be blamed for the mess.
Milwaukee County gets four times more State aide then the State average per person.
It does not look good for the State taxpayers when both candidates are from Milwaukee.
Anon. at 5:44
Some questions (I really don't know the answers)
How much does Milwaukee County pay in taxes per capita as compared to the rest of the state?
How much wealth does Milwaukee County generate per capita as compared to the rest of the state?
sean s.
Governors and legislatures have been leaving a mess for the next one for decades. Sometimes it hurts. Tommy's huge fiscal mess probably cost Scott McCallum the election in '02. As governor for over 14 years and a great master of the legislature, Tommy never had to worry about how much of a mess he had left for himself, he could always find more fiscal tricks.
Sean,
The problem for Milwaukee County is that it has almost all of the poor people in the metropolitan area but a relatively small share of the rich ones. If the entire metropolitan area were one county, the numbers wouldn't appear to be as skewed.
Rick is correct. The only poll that matters is the one the occurs Nov. 2.
Billiam is correct that whoever wins will have to deal with the fiscal legacy of Jim Doyle and Tommy Thompson. Doyle pledged in 2002 that he would fix things. He did not, though he falsely claimed otherwise and skated pass the faulty media radar.
Among the many differences between Walker and Barrett there is the fact that in the unlikely event Barrett wins he will do so with the support of groups and individuals who will oppose meaningful fiscal restraint.
Ken Kratz for governor
George;
I think that Barrett’s supporters support “meaningful fiscal restraint”, but they also understand that fiscal restraint is just one priority among others; others like creating or maintaining the infrastructure that businesses need, providing the education and training that workers need, providing the security and emergency services we all need, and so forth. Fiscal restraint should not be the tail wagging the dog; we should spend our money wisely, but there are things worth spending money on. America was not built by "fiscal restraint".
sean s.
Sean,
Barrett's key supporters want to retain as many government jobs as possible with no reduction in compensation. That is their agenda, though obviously they don't frame it that way.
I don't deny that other Barrett supporters favor a less self-serving agenda, but that is the agenda of those who will provide most of the $ and organizational backing to Tom Barrett.
As even the Milwaukee Journal Editorial Page has recognized, the financial structure of public employment compensation is unsustainable.
Sean -
Communities outside of Milwaukee have experienced very deep cuts from the State while they see Milwaukee being coddled.
I do not think either candidate is going to put Milwaukee on an even playing field with all the State.
George,
Barrett’s supporters “don’t frame it” as you do because they don’t think of it like you do. Maybe they think of it as retaining public services for Wisconsinites who need these services.
sean s.
Anonymous at 5:01am
Communities outside Milwaukee can’t “see Milwaukee being coddled” because you can’t see what’s not there. Milwaukee may be many things, but it’s not “coddled”. Not even approximately.
sean s.
Sean,
Barrett's major financial support, apart from perhaps trial lawyers, will come from public employee unions, others in organized labor, and, indirectly, Doyle and the tribes. The disproportionate amount of direct $ support will come from those who don't want public jobs or benefits cut and who would rather raise taxes instead. The kinds of actions that will be needed to address the estimated $3b deficit will be viewed by them as poison. And Barrett has pledged no tax increase at least for the first budget. This means that, when compared to Walker, he would have an even tougher time dealing with the cards dealt by Doyle. Walker won't have an easy time, but he will be in a better position than Barrett.
What does it mean to say Milwaukee has been "coddled" by the state in comparison to other communities? What are examples?
One that occurs to me is the enormous cost the state incurs to support MPS without ever holding the district accountable?
George,
Regardless of who gives financial support, the voters are the ones who will pick the next governor. Those who give money to Barrett have things they want, those who give money to Walker do to. Both are taking care of their "own".
Walker and Barrett will have the same problems dealing with the budget problems; neither has an advantage there.
As for "coddling", MPS is in Milwaukee County, but it is NOT Milwaukee County. So you are changing the topic.
I believe the State holds MPS to the same standard than other school districts. Is that wrong? How so?
sean s.
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