Friday, January 07, 2011

2011 Predictions

I wanted to absorb a bit of the new year before making a few predictions. I did OK last year so I'm encouraged to try again.

1. The Packers will lose a close game to the Eagles but will edge out the Lions for the NFC North title in the fall.

2. The Brewers will be much better but not good enough to get past the Reds. They take the wild card but that's as far as they go.

3. The House votes to repeal ObamaCare. The Senate doesn't. The plan continues to be a riot of unintended consequences and unnoticed little gems.

4. Scott Walker has a historically successful legislative year that will end with public employee unions in full scale apoplexy. Here are a few: Concealed carry, Voter ID, a return to restrictions on local school spending and salaries, some significant move away from retiree health care and defined benefit plans and expanded school choice.

5. David Prosser is easily reelected to the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

6. The United States Supreme Court strikes down the matching funds provision of the Arizona Clean Elections Act. This means that the provisions in the Impartial Justice Act are gone as well. I don't think the Court cites my article but it should.

7. I have a feeling. The Supreme Court also strikes down the individual mandate in ObamaCare.

8. I have another feeling. Unemployment falls to 7%. Why? I don't know. I just think it's time.

9. There is a major move to abolish Milwaukee County as a distinct government entity and rumblings of MPS bankruptcy.

10. Watch this blog for big news.


Anonymous said...

#7: There is zero chance that Anthony Kennedy will vote to strike down the individual mandate. For that matter, the likelihood that John Roberts would do so is extremely slim. Equally off base is your prediction that any of this will be happening in 2011. These issues are going to be percolating through the courts of appeals this year. If cert. is granted, it wouldn't be until late this year, at the very earliest, and more likely early 2012.

RobH said...

For the most part, an unsurprising rightwing wishlist rather than predictions of any kind.

On the other hand, I tend to agree with you on the Packers but have more hope for the Brewers.

AnotherTosaVoter said...

No chance of #9. There may be an effort, maybe even a blue-ribbon commission, but nothing is going to happen. With all the questions of pension, retiree health, ownership of assets, responsibility for debt service, and a sincere lack of desire by the State or munis to take on any of the County's costs, nothing will get done.

I'm curious what "unnoticed little gems" have already constituted a riot of unintended consequences of health care reform? So far it's pretty unexciting. I'm even more curious whether the GOP will actually provide anything resembling an alternative as opposed to their current South Park Gnome plan.

I see your party is already coming to the realization they're not going to find enough non-defense discretionary spending to cut as they'd promised. The fight over ag subsidies is going to be a riot - good luck convincing Chuck Grassley. I'd like to offer a prediction I saw someone else make: unable to actually come up with significant spending cuts, your party will, as always, turn to demagoguery on social issues.

AnotherTosaVoter said...

Maybe you should predict that some of the crazier members of your side will tone down their rhetoric.

jp said...

#8 The only way the rate can fall to 7% is if 2% drop out of the labor market. There are too many negatives in our economy.

Number 3 is too easy.

Anonymous said...

No comment about the Third Tier Law School hiring Feingold as a visiting professor? Isn't that your title, counsellor?

Free Lunch said...

Wouldn't it be interesting if Governor Walker, showing that he really cares about saving money for Metro Milwaukee taxpayers, merges the entire metro area into a single metro government (city/county/schools/whatever)? Look at all the money they could save.

AnotherTosaVoter said...

Free Lunch:

It'd be nice. Many states have one school district per County. We have 72 counties and more than 400 school districts. Towns are certainly obsolete, so are villages IMO.

There'd be a lot of turf wars to fight, and a lot of people opposed from both the left and the right (do you think conservatives in Franklin or Cudahy want their kids in the same school district as Milwaukee?). It would take a ton of leadership at the top. Tommy tried it 10 years ago and utterly failed.

It's not going to happen.

Anonymous said...

how about the Tea Party inflames people to be bigoted angry and nuts

Anonymous said...

Darned intricate blog, founder a wonderful gentleman's gentleman! Desing is cold!