I am old enough that very little surprises me anymore.
But I was flabbergasted by Tuesday's election results. I literally could not believe what I was seeing on Tuesday night.
There is no way around the fact that the turnout for Scott Walker was highly unusual. As Christian Schneider points out, elections in which only one party has an actual contested primary (and, no, Arthur Kohl-Riggs does not count) generally results in much higher turnout for the party with a contest. Whether it is the Democrats or Republicans, the party with a primary generally sees turnout at 200-250% of the party without. We saw the same pattern in the recent presidential primary. Many more people voted in the GOP primary.
The GOP did about nothing to get out the vote this week. Believe me. I know. My phone never rang. My mailbox was empty. I got a few e-mails but, as GOTV goes, there was nothing. Even talk radio was largely focused on the Democrats.
So what does it mean? The Democrats' turnout was not bad but one wonders how much more there could be. Their story has been that there is a groundswell of popular furor that will sweep Walker out of office. But how many voters could be enraged at Walker and yet not bother to vote in the primary to choose his opponent? You have to wonder how low the ceiling is for the Democrats.
On the other hand, the fact that so many Republicans turned out to case a symbolic vote suggests a large and highly motivated Republican base. It is easy to imagine Walker voters staying home for a primary that meant nothing. You have to wonder how high the ceiling is for the Republicans.
Of course, the Democrats can tell a story. Lots of anti-Walker voters don't care who his opponent is, the unions pulled back their ground game when they saw Falk couldn't win, Walker's support is limited to highly motivated conservatives, etc.
But, among themselves, the Dems have to be shocked and worried.
As for my side, I once tried a case that went on for weeks and involved many lawyers. One of the guys on my side of the case - a wonderful lawyer who is now a judge - would always bring us to earth when we thought things were going well.
"Don't get smug," he'd say.
Don't.
10 comments:
I like Han Solo's version better:
"Great Kid! Don't get cocky!"
I live in Waukesha County. While my phone never rang, my mailbox was stuffed with Walker mailers, and you can't turn a corner without a Walker yard sign. That's not nothing to turn out the vote.
"The GOP did about nothing to get out the vote this week. Believe me. I know. My phone never rang. My mailbox was empty. I got a few e-mails but, as GOTV goes, there was nothing. Even talk radio was largely focused on the Democrats."
Anecdotal evidence on your part, Professor.
Walker and his allies spent over $10 million saturating the airwaves leading up to the primaries, and local county Republican Party operatives were diligently handing out fliers, making phone calls, and sending emails. Just because YOU did not receive a full court press does equate to (R)'s "doing nothing".
"Elections in which only one party has an actual contested primary (and, no, Arthur Kohl-Riggs does not count)."
Why doesn't he count? It seems you are inferring that the "fake Democrats" were more credible than him. What a joke?
The results were not even close in the six (D) primaries, hardly a "contest". ALL of the candidates, including Kohl-Riggs, made a mockery out of our election process with their "real" motivation to become a candidate for a party they truly have no interest in serving.
Kohl-Riggs garnered 18,000 votes, about 3% in the Republican primary. While he obviously got slaughtered, he was a contestant. And he actually participated in the primary.
Indeed, don't get smug.
Perhaps the good professor would like to comment on this matter.
illusorytenant.blogspot.com/2012/05/wjc-v-david-prosser-story-so-far.html
---Walker and his allies spent over $10 million saturating the airwaves leading up to the primaries, and local county Republican Party operatives were diligently handing out fliers, making phone calls, and sending emails.
Saturating the airways is not technically a 'get out the vote' activity.
As a phone calling volunteer, I can assure you that there was no-where near the phone call activity that there was for example in the Prosser election.
I will say that most Republican's share my emotion that this year June 5th is as important and positive a holiday as July 4th. Can't wait!
"Saturating the airways is not technically a 'get out the vote' activity."
Care to provide evidence to back up your assertion?
I can...Advertisements about a candidate targeted to a certain audience reminds people, especially those who are "on the fence", of a number of things to consider before they cast their vote. Advertisements about a candidate target to a certain audience on a repeated basis enables specific messages to be repeatedly aired so it is in the consciousness of those who are going to vote.
"As a phone calling volunteer, I can assure you that there was no-where near the phone call activity that there was for example in the Prosser election."
More anecdotal evidence.
"I will say that most Republican's share my emotion that this year June 5th is as important and positive a holiday as July 4th. Can't wait!"
Apparently, you did not heed the professor's call not to be smug. And to equate a recall election to our national day of independence, a bit over the top. A frowny face for you :(
Care to provide evidence to back up your assertion? ???????
How's this???
Your team should begin to take steps to contact each voter you have identified as a supporter and motivate them to go out and vote for your candidate. Each supporter should be contacted at least once, though if you have the manpower or money to do so, contacting each supporter 2-3 times would be beneficial.
There are several different ways your campaign can go about contacting these supporters. You can operate a phone bank (volunteer or professional) that calls each supporter to remind them to go vote on Election Day. You can organize literature drops and door-to-door visits to get out the vote, and mail out direct mail pieces that reinforce your message. The best option is to utilize several different methods to reach each supporter numerous times.
http://www.localvictory.com/grassroots/getting-out-the-vote.html
You focus on the media, that's for the big-money, out-of-touch pols and union bosses who have an in with their friends the media. We'll be talking to our neighbors as volunteers.
----------------------------------------
Equating it to independence is over the top?
After months of lefties calling its opponents "hitler", koch-suckers, death threats, vandalism, physical intimidation, phony numbers on petitions (all of which were 'over the top'), you bet its like Independence Day, independence from power-mongers and deranged leftists.
Sorry to disappoint you, Unknown, but the (D) is NOT my team...and neither are the (R)'s. I can make up my own mind when it comes to elections. BOTH sides make me puke with their juvenile delinquent behavior. MODERATES, to me, are the ones who can save this country from oblivion. Unfortunately, they are classified by the extremists on either side of the aisle as being "sell-outs" or "RINOS"/"DINOS".
"You focus on the media, that's for the big-money, out-of-touch pols and union bosses who have an in with their friends the media. We'll be talking to our neighbors as volunteers."
Indeed, BOTH sides are getting the vote out as you described by utilizing several different methods.
But didn't Walker also spend "big-money" on tee-vee and radio for his own "out-of-touch pols" and "big business cronies"? See, if you are going to call out one side, then you best be consistent by calling out the other side, too.
"After months of lefties calling its opponents "hitler", koch-suckers, death threats, vandalism, physical intimidation, phony numbers on petitions (all of which were 'over the top'), you bet its like Independence Day, independence from power-mongers and deranged leftists."
It's called confirmation bias on your part. As I stated earlier, BOTH sides have acted like little children. So get back to me when you are ready to admit that there are plenty of knuckleheads on your side as well.
Sorry, don't buy your false equivalency regarding death threats and over the top invective. Clinging to the 'moderate' pox-on-both houses you are either uninformed or willfully disregarding how bad it got. An elected official shouldn't have to have 5 state troopers escorting her in the Capital. Shouldn't be assaulted in a private estalishment. Shouldn't receive credible death threats.
Sure Walker is using media but the extra ingredient is people-to people get out the vote effort, as traditionally defined, which was not brought to bear by the Republicans last Tuesday. It will be on June 5th.
Unknown--Sorry, don't buy your false equivalency regarding death threats and over the top invective.
Strawman. YOU focused on the death threats angle.
Your own admitted bias gets in the way of any rational debate, i.e. "power-mongers and deranged leftists". You are just bad as Capper with your rhetoric and generalizations.
Unknown--"Clinging to the 'moderate' pox-on-both houses you are either uninformed or willfully disregarding how bad it got."
I fully expected you to poke fun at my middle-of-the-roadness. And it's an amazing ability that you assume that I am "uninformed" from this here blog.
Why, because I am not in lockstep with your line of thinking that automatically I somehow have no clue about politics in this state or country? Sad on your part.
It got bad because BOTH PARTIES EQUALLY are to blame for our current state of affairs. Pointing fingers in a desperate attempt to castigate their opponents is childish, and people like myself are fed up.
"Sure Walker is using media but the extra ingredient is people-to people get out the vote effort, as traditionally defined, which was not brought to bear by the Republicans last Tuesday."
30% turnout rate for a primary, the highest since 1952. The blanketing of the airwaves with television ads, social networking, knocking on doors, passing out flyers--all people to people.
The Wisconsin Republican Party said Wednesday that it had already made more than 2 million voter contact calls since January, which is more than was made during the entire 2010 election cycle--all people to people.
Again, get back to me when you are ready to admit that there are plenty of knuckleheads on your side as well.
Post a Comment