Saturday, January 02, 2010

Predictions for 2010

1. Scott Walker will become the 45th Governor of the state of Wisconsin and the first elected from Milwaukee until Julius Heil in 1939. The Democrats will continue to hold both houses of the legislature by razor thin margins.

2. The Republicans pick up seven seats in the Senate and twenty in the House.

3. The United States Supreme Court will bury a key element of the McCain-Feingold bill by holding that the funding of independent expenditures cannot be restricted unless they can be construed as express advocacy lacking any substantial component of issue advocacy - or something along those lines. You can't expect me to read five minds.

4. The Wisconsin Supreme Court will hold (4-3) that Wisconsin's marriage amendment was not unconstitutionally enacted.

5. I fervently pray that I am wrong but there will be a significant terrorist attack on American soil or against an American target.

6. As I predicted last year - and was wrong, Israel will strike at a target in Iran. The Obama administration will take no action but will respond equivocally further isolating the Israelis and accomplishing nothing.

7. Newly installed Milwaukee Archbishop Raymond Listecki will undertake some highly visible effort to insist that a prominent Catholic or Catholic organization not act contrary to church teaching. Tom Barrett needs to watch himself.

8. The Green Bay Packers will edge Arizona in the first round of the NFC playoffs. They will lose a shoot out to New Orleans in the second round.

9. Because I can't get over the Norv Turner factor, I think that Indianapolis beats Philadelphia in the Super Bowl.

10. Alabama beats Texas next week. Wisconsin makes the NCAAs but loses in the first round. Marquette doesn't make it, but goes to the NIT semifinals. UWM goes out in the Horizon League semi-finals. The Brewers rebound to take the National League Central and lose to the Dodgers in the NLCS. Look for breakout years from Rickie Weeks and Mannie Parra. Brett Favre will not retire, but the Packers will win the NFC North next fall. Wisconsin will be second in the Big Ten and go to its first BCS Bowl other than the Rose Bowl.

11. Nothing happens at the Mexico City climate summit.

12. The individual health care mandate is not held unconsitutional but the Supreme Court grants cert.

13. No significant cap and trade bill - and maybe no cap and trade bill at all - gets passed.

14. There will be a well funded challenge (in the sense of independent expenditures) to Justice David Prosser. I will predict its failure in my predictions for 2011.

15. This time - this year - Paul Krugman and Ann Coulter will announce their engagement. Love hopes. Always.

109 comments:

Nick said...

RE #7: I suppose that might be a good reason not to vote for a Catholic for any public office.

Anonymous said...

RE#1: Well, if this prediction comes true, all of Wisconsin will be in bad a shape as Milwaukee County.

George Mitchell said...

One state legislative house will flip; probably the Senate.

Badgers will win at least one NCAA game.

Concur on BCS for football team.

Tentative USSC majority will notch some victories before Obama replaces a conservative.

Recognition will be widespread that MPS is financially bankrupt; plans for real restructuring will emerge.

Anonymous said...

A lot of wishful thinking incorporated into 1-3, 5, 7, and 12 (as to grant of cert). Perhaps not unrealistic as to 7, given what we know of Listecki. Is there a risk that the anti-Catholicism that supposedly ended with President Kennedy's election may have a resurgence? Bishops these days are less reticent than they were in 1960 to tell public officials how to act. That may have a consequence.

AnotherTosaVoter said...

Serious question as someone who is neither catholic nor conservative:

Why is communion used only as a cudgel on the abortion issue?

Why not the environment, support for the poor, or the death penalty?

Anonymous said...

I hope that Listecki hauls out the big stick and goes after politicos who don't toe the party line. That will be the best way to motivate the moderate majority. Wonder why these clowns didn't haul out the big guns when the pedophile priests were working their magic?

Anonymous said...

AnotherTosaVoter, as to your question for a well formed Catholic, there is more to taking communion than being pro-choice, one must be in a state of grace.

Politicans who consistently support abortion and go for communion are, from a Catholic perspective, doing two things, they put their own souls in danger, and create a "scandal" in the community.

Frankly the reaction of Bishops to pro-choice pols has been remarkably lax historically and only in very recent years are we seeing the Bishops get a bit more assertive.

In the USA due to decades of bad religious education you go to any Catholic parish and odds are nearly everyone at the Mass goes up for communion. In earlier times, and in other parts of the world, people are much more concious of sin and will not go up unless in a "state of grace" (having made a recent confession.)

I myself was once living a (European) country where I was bad with the language, unable to find an English speaking priest I went to Mass for months without going for communion before I was able to find a priest to confess to and again fully participate in the Eucharist.

Thus a well formed Catholic does not need the Bishop telling him/her not to take communion if they aren't in a state of grace, a well formed Catholics knows that if they do something like get drunk, skip Mass, steal a candy-bar, etc. they have commited a mortal sin and cannot return to Communion until they have made a confession, why abortion supporting politicans have such trouble understanding this, therby forcing the Bishops to do SOMETHING, is beyond me.

I am sure in a decade or two as religion declines in society and more politicans will be comfortable identifying as athiests/agnostics/etc. this too shall pass as a media issue.

Rick Esenberg said...

Why not the environment, support for the poor, or the death penalty?

The Church's teaching on the death penalty is more recent and does not seem to be as fundamental as that on abortion. As far as the environment and the poor, I suspect that a Catholic who actively desires destruction of the environment or is indifferent to the poor would be estranged from the Church. But that is not the same as refusing to support any particular policies with respect to the environment or poverty.

AnotherTosaVoter said...

LOL, well Anon, I take communion at our catholic church, and I can guarantee that I'm not in a state of grace (as a heathen non-practicing Lutheran) nor, thankfully, does the church care.

Rick, you really didn't answer my question. From the outside, it sure seems like abortion is the only issue used as a cudgel because it's the only issue about which Catholics should seem to care where the left is on the wrong side. Making abortion legal is permissive, it doesn't require people to have them, so I'm not sure why a policy decision of that sort is any business of the Church, especially when a positive policy choice (such as health care programs for the poor, increased environmental protections, or abolishing the death penalty) make seemingly more concrete progress towards the Catholic view.

I get that it's all a matter of degrees, I don't think someone has to be an outright socialist or enviro-whacko to fit with the Church, it just seems like the whole thing is political and not based on principle.

And speaking of principle, another question for you: a lot of people you hang around with would suggest we need to ban abortion or ban gay marriage for biblical reasons (I'm not accusing you of thinking this way, I just think you probably have an insight into it). Why don't those same people ever seem to acknowledge the bible's thoughts about rich people getting into heaven or hypocrites praying in public?

A lot is made by conservatives about "cafeteria catholicism", but it sure seems to go both ways sometimes.

Thanks.

Anonymous said...

AnotherTosaVoter,

You can think what you want but I assure you the Church does care, even if the Parish priest did not seem to care (a situation I'd highly doubt), Church teachings are very clear.

Why a non-practicing Lutheran would be taking the Eucharist at a Catholic Church is a mystery to me.

I mean sure the Priest is not going to interogate you as you go up for communion and anyone could get away with it by why you would want to be so disrespectful to a diffrent religion from your own seems odd.

Would you put pamphlets with swastika on the cars in a synagouge parking lot, would you buy a Koran then go to a Mosque and rip pages out of , etc?

Even if you totally reject the notion, Catholics believe the Eucharasit is the body and blood of Christ, the act of taking "communion" is to be in community with the Catholic Church, when you go up to recieve the priest says "The body of Christ" and you say "Amen" (translation, I believe), if you are going to lie and make a mockery of what Cathlics hold dear, you are kind of a jerk.

Anonymous said...

If Paul Krugman and Ann Coulter marry, isn't that same sex marriage (since Ann is so "manly")?

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